International Implications of Ransomware for Dummies
Modern ransomware attacks often greatly affect civilian life and government operations, it is a geopolitical issue.
Modern ransomware attacks often greatly affect civilian life and government operations — it is a geopolitical issue.
The Rise of Digital Chaos
In 2017, a powerful cyber weapon disrupted “Constitution Day”, a holiday in Ukraine which celebrates the country’s adoption of an independent constitution. Under the noise of fireworks, a silent worm spread across computer systems disabling radiation safety systems at the Chernobyl site, shutting down banks and ATMs, disrupting businesses, maiming the Ukrainian electrical power grid and metro networks. Operators watched helplessly as a skull illuminated their screens, notifying them that their hard drives had been encrypted and demanding a ransom.
The scenario seemed familiar — and it was. The attack mimicked a known ransomware strain, Petya. But this was NotPetya.
Unlike typical ransomware, NotPetya was not financially motivated. Its encryption algorithm had been altered to make decryption impossible. Later forensic research strongly suggested that it was developed and deployed by Russian intelligence services. Despite the wealth of digital evidence, Russia faced little tangible consequence due to the difficulty of attribution in cyberspace.
Criminal Enterprises and Safe Havens
Criminal ransomware operators have exploited this ambiguity. Many operate safely within Russia’s borders under an unspoken “safe-harbor” understanding — they may attack globally, but never domestically. Although Western law enforcement has indicted numerous Russian cybercriminals, few ever see trial.
Ransomware has become one of the most lucrative criminal enterprises in modern history. Its targets — critical infrastructure, corporations, and healthcare systems — have ripple effects that touch millions of civilians. As nations digitize their essential operations, ransomware has transitioned from a criminal nuisance to a geopolitical weapon.
The International Policy Problem
Governments struggle to respond effectively. Ransomware crosses borders and jurisdictions, leaving victims without clear avenues for recourse. Most states resort to issuing indictments or sanctions, symbolic gestures that rarely result in arrests. This underscores the need for international policy coordination — frameworks for attribution, response, and deterrence.
Civilian and Economic Impacts
Ransomware at this scale has two broad categories of impact:
- Economic Disruption (Type I): Attacks on private industries that cascade through the supply chain — e.g., the Cognizant incident.
- Critical Infrastructure Disruption (Type II): Attacks that directly affect civilian safety or essential services — e.g., the Colonial Pipeline incident.
Large-scale attacks can shake economies and endanger lives. According to Sophos, 42% of organizations with over 1,000 employees experienced ransomware incidents. Cybercrime Magazine projects global ransomware damages will reach $265 billion annually by 2031, with a new attack every two seconds.
National Security and the Cyber Front
Attacks like WannaCry’s impact on the NHS highlight that ransomware is not just an IT problem — it is a homeland security issue. The FBI has warned that such attacks “can impact the physical safety of American citizens.”
In response, the U.S. established the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) in 2018. CISA now coordinates national response efforts and operates StopRansomware.gov, underscoring how ransomware has become a threat to national and international stability.
Ransomware and Geopolitics
The U.S. Treasury notes that ransomware payments can “undermine U.S. foreign policy and national security interests.” BBC analysis found that 74% of ransomware profits in 2021 went to Russia-linked actors. Some groups, such as Conti and Trickbot, have expressed explicit support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — blurring the line between cybercrime and state action.
Reports from Bellingcat and the U.S. Treasury suggest that these groups may have direct ties to Russian intelligence, particularly the FSB. Whether or not these connections are formalized, the effect is clear: ransomware has become an instrument of state power cloaked in criminal anonymity.
Law, Attribution, and Due Diligence
International law still lags behind cyber realities. Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter prohibits the use of force against another state, but cyber operations rarely meet its threshold. Similarly, the principle of due diligence — a state’s obligation not to allow its territory to be used for harm — is regularly flouted by Russia’s permissive stance toward cybercriminals.
Without stronger international consensus, ransomware will continue to exploit the gaps in digital governance and international law.
Conclusion
Ransomware has evolved from an online extortion scheme into a geopolitical force capable of influencing economies, national security, and international relations. Combating it requires more than firewalls and patches — it demands international cooperation, diplomatic pressure, and legal modernization.
Only when the world begins defining the rules of cyberspace and coordinating cross-border policy will we begin to curb the global ransomware epidemic.